The 60% Drop: What Actually Happened to Organic CTR in 2025

If you’re seeing weird patterns in your analytics, you’re not imagining it.

In September 2025, one of the largest ongoing studies of AI Overview impact published updated findings.

The numbers are stark.

The Data: June 2024 vs September 2025

Organic CTR for queries with AI Overviews:

  • June 2024: ~1.76%
  • September 2025: ~0.61%
  • Drop: approximately 61%

Paid CTR for those same queries:

  • June 2024: ~19.7%
  • September 2025: ~6.34%
  • Drop: approximately 68%

This isn’t a sampling error. The study tracked millions of queries across thousands of keywords.

What Changed

When an AI Overview appears at the top of Google’s results page, it occupies the first screen on mobile.

The AI summary synthesizes information from multiple sources and presents a complete answer.

Users get what they need without clicking.

On mobile (where most searches happen), the AI Overview pushes the first organic result completely below the fold.

This creates what researchers call a “scroll tax.” Users must actively choose to bypass a satisfactory answer to find a link.

Most don’t.

The Exception: Being Cited

Here’s the interesting part.

The same study found that brands cited within the AI Overview text earn about 35% more organic clicks than brands that appear in the traditional results below but are not cited.

Being cited is a badge of authority. It tells the user: “This brand is the definitive source.”

So the game isn’t “avoid AI Overviews.” The game is “get cited in them.”

Not All Queries Are Equal

The impact varies dramatically by query type.

Informational queries (“how to fix a leaky faucet,” “symptoms of flu”) take the hardest hit. AI Overviews can fully satisfy these without the user needing to click anything.

Transactional queries (“buy running shoes,” “book hotel Austin”) remain more resilient. Users need to complete a purchase, which requires clicking through.

Navigational queries (“Facebook login,” “Surmado.com”) are largely unaffected. Users know exactly where they want to go.

What This Means for Your Business

If you’re a publisher or content site relying on informational traffic, the model is broken. Some sites report 25-80% traffic declines depending on vertical.

If you’re a local business, the impact is more nuanced. You’re losing the “research” layer traffic, but direct intent (“near me,” “open now”) is holding steady.

If you’re an e-commerce site, top-of-funnel content is losing traffic, but bottom-of-funnel product pages are more stable.

The Strategic Shift

Traditional SEO metrics (rankings, sessions, bounce rate) are becoming less meaningful.

New metrics matter more:

  • Citation frequency: How often are you named in AI answers?
  • Share of Voice in AI: What percentage of AI recommendations in your category mention you vs competitors?
  • Zero-click visibility: Impressions where users see your brand even if they don’t click.

How to Measure This

You can test manually: ask ChatGPT, Perplexity, Claude, and Gemini the questions your customers ask. See if you appear in the answers.

Or use a tool like Surmado Signal ($25) to test this across 7 platforms with multiple personas automatically.

The 60% CTR drop is real. But it’s not the end of the story.

It’s the beginning of a new game where being cited matters more than being ranked.

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